There are 3 main factors that correlate into successful real estate locations:
-
In store consumer demographics and behavior
-
Trade area characteristics
-
Real Estate characteristics
| Outcomes for Predictive Analytics for Commercial Real Estate:
Outcome: #1 - To predict how many and where to put future
locations in a given area (i.e. - MSA, county, zip etc.) and rank these
locations based on estimated Gross Sales. This study is referred to as our "Focused
Search Area Roll Out Study" (FSAROS). This study is based on trade are
boundaries, how far consumers will travel, key competitors, minimal
cannibalization, key consumer demographic correlation.
Outcome: #2 - To apply the Predictive Model to any potential real estate
site and estimate future gross sales. This study is referred to as our "Windsor
Individual Site Evaluation" (WISE) This study is based on the factors
included in FSAROS as well as specific Real Estate Characteristics - access,
visibility, signage, parking, tenant mix, center type, traffic count etc.
|
INDIVIDUAL STEPS UTILIZED IN PREDICTIVE MODELING:
Market Intelligence: In today's competitive marketplace, getting the
biggest bang for your buck isn't a perk; it's integral to business success. The
best way to maximize income is to understand your different customer segments.
The Windsor Realty Group uses proven cross-industry expertise, customized
research, and state-of-the-art technology to help you put your finger on the
pulse of your customer. Not only will our staff and strategic partners help you
understand what information you need to derive from market research, we'll help
you use the data to create actionable information you can use to impact the
bottom-line through building a predictive model.
Predictive Model: Demographics and location data are two essential pieces
of information when looking at Retail, Restaurant and Real Estate site
selection initiatives. In today's constantly changing landscape, it is critical
to have and utilize demographics and location data to provide insight into
existing locations as well as future potential sites. Given the part that
location intelligence plays in business decisions - 80% of business data has a
geographic component.
Through the Windsor Comprehensive Predictive Model you can drive revenue, out
position the competition, minimize risk and provide each and every location
with a predictive outcome.
Focused Search Area Roll-Out Study (FSAROS): Through the Windsor FSAROS
you will have the ability to prioritize markets for expansion, achieve market
optimization for maximum sales, determine potential sales market by market and
save considerable time and resources by focusing on the right markets and the
right real estate.
Windsor Individual Site Evaluation (WISE): Countless days and resources
are wasted by companies spending time touring markets in hopes that the perfect
site will be spotted along the drive. This is the "Wild Goose Chase" you need
to avoid to be successful in growing your locations in today's competitive
market. Through our customized Site Score Card derived from the Predictive
Model created for your company you will have the ability to zero-in on the
right real estate in the right markets saving considerable time and resources
that would otherwise be spent playing "Real Estate Roulette" and "Site
Slots".the random real estate games of choice by most brokers today.
Windsor Real Estate Pipeline Management Center: The Windsor Real Estate
Pipeline Management Center is a web-based application that allows you to track
leases, key dates, generate custom reports, check status as much or as little
as you want and access all of your leases and lease summaries by simply
pointing and clicking. More importantly, we create custom real estate documents
including the Request for Proposal, Letter of Intent and Lease Summary to
provide you with a standardized managed real estate system. All of your vital
documents including all leases scanned and saved are kept in a safe and secure
central database for you to access when you need them. Through our proprietary
comprehensive approach you can now set up each and every one of your locations
for success.
(Back to top)
(Costs are based on raw data available from client and extent of needed market
intelligence)
Collection of data:
-
We collect actual Gross Sales of a random sample of locations in the
system (50 to 100 locations)
-
We collect actual Consumer Demographics of those who shop at the
store/restaurant/office etc. Data could include:
-
Gender
-
Age
-
Household Income
-
Education
-
Marital Status
-
Kids
|
-
Occupation
-
Days customer is at location
-
Time customer is at location
-
Travel Time to location
-
Going to
-
Coming From
|
-
Home Address
-
Work Address
-
Frequency
-
Competitors they frequent
-
How often they
frequent competitors
-
Other retailers
visited in same center
|
We collect Trade Area Information on a sampling of existing locations
(The actual trade area researched will be affected by the Consumer Demographics
collected above regarding how far clients will travel for the use.) Data could
include:
-
Type of Trade Area (Neighborhood, Regional, Semi Regional etc.)
-
Number of Competitors in the Trade Area
-
Distance from Existing Location to Competitors
-
Total $'s spent on specific product in Trade Area
-
Distance to a Sister Store
|
-
We collect Real Estate Characteristics on a sampling of existing
locations. Data could include:
-
Visibility
-
Signage
-
Parking
-
Co-Tenants
-
Center Image
|
-
Retail Activity
-
Access - Ingress and Egress
-
Traffic Count
-
Center Type
-
Location of Space within the Center
|
(Back to top)
| Step 1. |
Client provides current store locations and sales data to Windsor for analysis.
|
| Step 2. |
If client has consumer identification information (street address, city, state,
zip, expenditures, frequency) for >75% of customers, then Windsor will conduct
the Market Intelligence Study per the Windsor Market Intelligence parameters.
|
| Step 3. |
Consumer identification information, Trade Area Information, Real Estate
Characteristics are analyzed and Scoring Algorithms/Multiple Regressions are
developed.
|
| Step 4. |
Scoring Algorithms/Multiple Regressions are then converted into Predictive
Scoring Models that can be applied to future locations.
|
| Step 5. |
Scoring Algorithms/Multiple Regressions are back-tested against existing store
locations and sales data to verify significance.
|
| Step 6. |
Site Score cards are developed utilizing the Predictive Scoring Model factors
for submitting future sites to be scored.
|
| Step 7. |
Annually update store data, store sales data, customer identification
information and update scoring algorithms (optional).
|
(Back to top)
Closing The Loop Between Real Estate & Marketing
| The Focused Search Area Roll Out Study (FSAROS) assumes average Real
Estate Characteristics and only factors Consumer Demographics and Trade Area
Information. We use a Grid Area Analysis Method to select the best locations to
maximize these areas. We use a 1 mile by 1 mile Grid Analysis using Geocode
data points. We drop the predictive model in each point using the defined Trade
area definition and pull the consumer demographics to come up with the best
location. We then zero out this trade area and rerun the roll out model to find
the next best location etc.
|
 |
| Roll Out Study Area (Based on Population) |
| 0 - 249,999 |
| 250,000 - 749,999 |
|
750,000 - 1,500,000 |
| 1,500,000 - 2,999,999 |
| 2,500,000 - 3,999,999 |
| 4,000,000 - 5,999,999 |
| 6,000,000 - 8,999,999 |
| 9,000,000 - Up |
|
(Back to top)
| Windsor Individual Site Evaluation (WISE) - The Predictive Model is used
again when specific real estate is found in a defined trade area as described
above. The Predictive Model is ran to further estimate future Gross Sales for
the proposed real estate site which now includes the Real Estate
Characteristics. The specific Real Estate Characteristics are layered on top of
the trade area estimates to further enhance, or negatively affect the Gross
Sales of the potential location. (WISE may also be used to predict
locations that are not located within a trade area as defined by FSAROS) |
The Windsor Individual Site Evaluation (WISE) is be based on the Predictive
Model built for the client and uses a plus or minus rating system based on the
specific real estate site criteria (i.e. Center Type, Location in Center,
Visibility, Signage, Tenant Mix, Access, Parking, Image etc.).
| Step 1. |
Client requests individual sites within the Focused Search Area to be
evaluated. |
| Step 2. |
Windsor runs requested sites against the Predictive Model to determine a site
score for each site. |
| Step 3. |
Windsor scores each site and submits to client for final review. |
|